When Covid first struck, the impression of many was that the impact would last just a few months…
This flew in the face of the experts who were already predicting longer term impact and the likelihood that a vaccine would take years to develop… The opinion moved on, with many thinking it would be over by the summer, and then by Christmas, and increasingly, people are slowly coming to terms with the fact that this is with us for the long term, well into 2021 and beyond.
It’s been a difficult and challenging period, with many businesses not knowing how to plan for the unknown, and also, how long to plan for. On the one hand epidemiologists are telling us the impacts will last for years to come, and there is always a risk of a virus mutation and then any hope of a vaccine goes back to the drawing board, and on the other, politicians are telling us it is all under control, vaccines are well progressed in their development, and we expect to be out of the worst of this soon.
Putting yourselves in the shoes of those communicating makes it easy to understand the differing messages, but that doesn’t help a business needing to plan for the future, so how do we plan in these circumstances?
It has oft been said, that there is only one thing worse than a wrong decision, and that’s no decision at all. Therefore, any business in a holding pattern, waiting for this all to pass over, is probably making the worst mistake. At times like these, facts may be thin on the ground, but if you grab those that you do have, and work with them, it’s surprising how much progress you can actually make…
First of all, have you re-written your strategic plan? The plan that looks forward at least 5 years, setting targets for where you want to be, rolling back to this year’s objectives and then putting out a policy deployment plan for the team? If not, do it, and do it now. Only by doing this will you be able to align your business and make sure everyone is pulling in the same direction. If you’re not familiar with the process, the x-matrix is a great tool for helping you do this exercise – you can just google it, there has been plenty written about it that will help guide you through the process.
But what facts do you put into the plan to help realise if your aspirations are achievable – well industry specific ones are exactly that….but some general ones may be:
- Brexit is happening – trade with the EU will be different (harder?)
- Job adverts are at a 1/3 of their pre-covid levels. Unemployment is at 4.1%, the highest for 2 years and 9.6M people were on Furlough at the end of August – we can debate the quantum, but a huge number of people will be out of work at the end of October, and or, the government will need to fund some kind of continuation scheme. Whichever way, times are hard, and the economy will suffer. There will be a lot of people not actively at work and their spending profile will change.
- Covid is not a UK issue, it’s global. Travel will continue to be constrained and there isn’t an economy in the world that isn’t negatively impacted – so selling abroad is no longer a get out of jail free card – in fact, the tigers will be pouncing, no doubt using very aggressive pricing to make it really difficult for UK companies to fight back.
- Planning for the worst, is always a better approach than planning for the best, so however long you think the impact of Covid will last, plan for longer.
In my opinion, UK businesses, in general, have been slow to respond to the impact of Covid, and have been poor at planning for the new normal. Risks and opportunities abound and any business that makes the transformation to the new norm, quickly and effectively, will have a competitive edge. Out of every crisis comes opportunity, and history tells us those that survive, can thrive, taking their business onto whole new levels.